Ok everybody. A serious Observation.

I’ve been reading quite a bit of alternative news about the Syrian problem. And I think I might see something coming down the road. Of course, diplomats will only make conditions based on feasibility. Everything is weighed carefully.

Currently, there is a red line from the US to Syria about Chemical weapons. We assert, well, the administration asserts that syria used them. I’ve read Doctors without borders opinions on the subject. They cite 3600 people who showed symptoms of the nerve agent Sarin. I take them at their word. Pretty clearly Sarin HAS been used. The only questions left are:

1. Who used them
2. What will we do about it.
We say the Syrian government used them against the rebels. Or the populace. I’m not real clear on this, or really think it matters. The US asserts the Syrian govt used them. They intend to launch some sort of strike against them in reprisal. Now we could make the observation that US Presidents are fond of using military action to distract the US voting public from domestic issues (like the Obamacare debacle), but that is a different debate. I may address that later.

The Syrians claim the rebels used the weapons. Both sides claim irrefutable evidence.

All of the opinions I’ve read thus far from Syrians indicate that they value their vast stockpile of chemical weapons as a counterweight for Israel’s nuclear capability. And this is my observation. As more nations seek a way to stop the potential bloodshed. Well, let’s be clear. I doubt seriously that the Iranians, or the Russians for that matter really give two shakes whether or not Syrians die. And if they die fighting US soldiers, they would probably like it. But the end result is very likely that they will lose Syria as a regional ally. And there is the added possibility of a widening regional war which could involve both of those nations. So Russia especially is looking for a peaceful resolution. So really, please don’t think I want to describe Vladimir Putin as a peacemaker. He is doing so here out of necessity.

His necessity? He’s apparently willing to give away the Syrian chemical arsenal for peace. The Syrians, the average Ahmed on the street is apparently not willing to make this trade. And yes, to the history buff. I see shades of France and Britain ceding the Sudetenland in what, ‘38?

What is Syria to do? I foresee them dragging this out. And they’re going to do it by acceding to the Chemical weapon surrender to the UN. But under conditions.

If the Sarin gas is a counterweight to Israel’s nuclear capability, why not just surrender the chemical weapons when Israel surrenders their nuclear capability?

They won’t go for it. But Russia and Iran may scream loudly for it. And it would just drag the issue out. And with Congressional support starting to wane, it may be the next Syrian move. Watch for the news to start including something about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and possibly a greater disarmament in the region. And a “We’ll let you have ours, when Israel gives up theirs”