Middle East

HAMAS MUST LOSE

I’ve been watching the war in Gaza fairly closely. Not close enough to call myself an expert by any means, but probably more closely than most.

So Hamas did start the war. They sent a force into southern Israel roughly equal in size to a brigade. They were not a cohesive unit by any means and disparate groups had assigned targets and attacked. They were primarily directed at homes or Kibbutzes. They reportedly had training in irregular warfare in Iran and put it to good use. Their attack was successful early on. They murdered and killed many, and took hostages back to Gaza.

I am of the opinion that the Hamas leadership genuinely believed the Israeli hostages newly being held in Gaza would stop the Israelis from attacking Gaza. They were wrong.

The Israelis began systematically attacking Gaza. Going house to house looking for Hamas fighters. The Hamas fighters hid amongst the general population. Civilian casualties mounted and continue to grow.

It’s interesting to me now, the success of the propaganda being pushed by Hamas. I engage in twitter/X to some small amount, and my timeline there is full of muslims decrying the genocide in Gaza. They are having quite a bit of success, although, at least in the US, the war in Gaza is starting to take on domestic political tones.

There is no genocide in Gaza. A genocide is simply put, an attempt to kill all of the members of some group. Nazis/Jews is the most famous attempt. But there have been many in history. Turks/Armenians, English/Irish, Spanish/Caribs, Chinese/Uighur and the list goes on. There were 400,000 Palestinians in 1948 after they famously refused their own state in a UN partition plan. Now there are 4 million. If the Israelis are attempting to exterminate the Palestinians, they are doing the worst job ever.

But the slogan, From the River to the Sea, is a cry for genocide. Genocide of the Israelis. Don’t be fooled, or doubt it. Many Arab/muslim organizations have openly called for genocide for decades. That is still their goal.

No, the war in Gaza is a siege. Plain and simple. Think of the Nazis outside of St Petersburg for a 1000 days. It is nasty over there I am sure. Hamas shows no fear, no hesitancy to hide amongst civilians, or in Hospitals, or schools. And on the other side, the IDF shows no hesitancy to kill/ attack Hamas wherever they think they are. Civilian deaths mount. Both sides accuse the other of war crimes. It’s getting hard to tell.

I am no friend of Israel. But neither am I a hater. They are our allies. I would see the US keep her word and honor alliances. I had 2 port visits there while I was in the Navy. Best port visits I had. Vivid life memories. I even made it to the West Bank.

The war is expanding. Hizballah in Lebanon has been shooting Katyushas into northern Israel (They sometimes call it Western Gallilee in the news) for some time.

Yemen says they are willing to attack, and have made attacks on merchant shipping. But that looks like it has all but stopped now. Israel did attack one of their ports. It may be nothing more from Yemen but words.

Syria has been quiet.

Iraq is reportedly sending troops through Syria to Lebanon in order to aid Hizballah. But I think that is just wishful thinking on the part of some muslims I follow on X.

Iran is the real threat. If they initiate hostilities, it will very likely end in World War 3. They recently announced that they do in fact have the bomb. Despite our piss poor 3rd rate efforts to deny them the bomb. That will be an aerial war. There is no shared border.

So now we wait. What will the other Arab states do. Turkey? Saudi? Egypt?

Tel Aviv is empty right now. Iran is threatening retribution, and the Israeli citizens believe them.

This could all end in a flash. Hamas could just release their hostages. Sue for peace.

But for lasting peace. Hamas MUST LOSE. Any peace Israel agrees to, the Hamas position MUST be WORSE than when the war started. And concessions will be viewed as a victory. That will lead to a re-arming, and yet another war in the future. 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Israel must force Hamas to retreat 3 steps. Or they are just giving Hamas a breathing space to rearm.

HAMAS MUST LOSE.

The Widening War

So previously, I wrote about the Houthis in Yemen, and how they were going to widen the war by trying to close the Bab al Mendib strait.

I have predicted that if the Yemini/Houthi are successful in halting merchant ship traffic in the Red Sea, It will cause Egypt to enter the war. Well, this hasn’t happened yet, but I have some more info for everybody.

https://apnews.com/article/houthi-drone-attacks-ship-gulf-aden-9949c0b224812fd37958709ed19dd365

This link talks about a Yemini attack in the gulf of Aden (Inbound to the southern entrance of the Bab al Mendib) on a merchant ship by a bomb laden drone.

https://www.voanews.com/a/egypt-worries-us-british-attacks-on-houthis-could-escalate-gaza-conflict/7438907.html

And this link is about Egypt’s hope for a slow of hostilities. They have already noticed a 30% drop in Suez canal traffic since December.

And y’all, I’m really only watching 1 flash point for the kickoff of WW3. Let’s hope that doesn’t come to pass. With time, I may write about some of the others.

China invades Taiwan.
Russia and Ukraine
Venezuela invades Guyana
Iran at war with US/UK/Pakistan

So much can happen.

The Houthi War

Years ago, I was in the Navy. Most of you who know me, know this already. When in the USN, I was taught Arabic at DLI in Monterey. One of my instructors was named Abdul Wahab AlHouthi.

Abdul was young and a little vivacious. He was popular. He had a lot of interesting stories about being a child in Yemen. Eating Grasshoppers and people smuggling guns. He spoke about the temperments and habits of the people there. Whenever I hear about the Houthis in Yemen and their attacks in the Red Sea, I visualize a thousand of Abdul running around, shooting rockets and yelling at me to study my verbs.

Just a little explanation as to why I’m thinking so much about this. I’ve been there. I know people who spoke to me personally about their cares and views. (Everything in the region is the fault of the British and how they drew the maps)

Egypt is going to enter this war. Purely on self interest. Yemen, and whether they are doing this at the behest of Iran or not is moot, is attacking shipping in the Red Sea. The chokepoint very near Yemen is called the “Bab al Mendib”. Yemen is going to close that chokepoint, and make it financially attractive for merchant shipping to avoid the Bab al Mendib and the Red Sea altogether. It will be cheaper to go all the way around Africa, than to lose your ship as well as its contents, by getting sunk or seized in a war zone

This will be disastrous for Egypt. At the top of the Red Sea is this place called the Suez canal. When I went through, (Once southbound, and once northbound), it was a million bucks a pop. That was in the 90s. If ships quit going thorough the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks on merchant shipping, it will hammer the Egyptian Economy particularly hard.

It will to a much lesser extent also hurt the Saudis and their port of Jeddah. But it will still hurt them.

How long will it take before Egypt and Saudi team up to directly express their displeasure with the Houthis.? The Houthis are being backed by the Iranians, and their has already been some friction between the Saudis and the Iranians.

I’m not exactly going out on a limb by predicting that the war in the Middle East is going to expand. But here is a specific for you. International merchant shipping will begin to avoid the Red Sea. When that happens….

Tick Tock Abdul. I bet they are already talking about your relatives in Riyadh and Cairo.