I’ve been watching the war in Gaza fairly closely. Not close enough to call myself an expert by any means, but probably more closely than most.
So Hamas did start the war. They sent a force into southern Israel roughly equal in size to a brigade. They were not a cohesive unit by any means and disparate groups had assigned targets and attacked. They were primarily directed at homes or Kibbutzes. They reportedly had training in irregular warfare in Iran and put it to good use. Their attack was successful early on. They murdered and killed many, and took hostages back to Gaza.
I am of the opinion that the Hamas leadership genuinely believed the Israeli hostages newly being held in Gaza would stop the Israelis from attacking Gaza. They were wrong.
The Israelis began systematically attacking Gaza. Going house to house looking for Hamas fighters. The Hamas fighters hid amongst the general population. Civilian casualties mounted and continue to grow.
It’s interesting to me now, the success of the propaganda being pushed by Hamas. I engage in twitter/X to some small amount, and my timeline there is full of muslims decrying the genocide in Gaza. They are having quite a bit of success, although, at least in the US, the war in Gaza is starting to take on domestic political tones.
There is no genocide in Gaza. A genocide is simply put, an attempt to kill all of the members of some group. Nazis/Jews is the most famous attempt. But there have been many in history. Turks/Armenians, English/Irish, Spanish/Caribs, Chinese/Uighur and the list goes on. There were 400,000 Palestinians in 1948 after they famously refused their own state in a UN partition plan. Now there are 4 million. If the Israelis are attempting to exterminate the Palestinians, they are doing the worst job ever.
But the slogan, From the River to the Sea, is a cry for genocide. Genocide of the Israelis. Don’t be fooled, or doubt it. Many Arab/muslim organizations have openly called for genocide for decades. That is still their goal.
No, the war in Gaza is a siege. Plain and simple. Think of the Nazis outside of St Petersburg for a 1000 days. It is nasty over there I am sure. Hamas shows no fear, no hesitancy to hide amongst civilians, or in Hospitals, or schools. And on the other side, the IDF shows no hesitancy to kill/ attack Hamas wherever they think they are. Civilian deaths mount. Both sides accuse the other of war crimes. It’s getting hard to tell.
I am no friend of Israel. But neither am I a hater. They are our allies. I would see the US keep her word and honor alliances. I had 2 port visits there while I was in the Navy. Best port visits I had. Vivid life memories. I even made it to the West Bank.
The war is expanding. Hizballah in Lebanon has been shooting Katyushas into northern Israel (They sometimes call it Western Gallilee in the news) for some time.
Yemen says they are willing to attack, and have made attacks on merchant shipping. But that looks like it has all but stopped now. Israel did attack one of their ports. It may be nothing more from Yemen but words.
Syria has been quiet.
Iraq is reportedly sending troops through Syria to Lebanon in order to aid Hizballah. But I think that is just wishful thinking on the part of some muslims I follow on X.
Iran is the real threat. If they initiate hostilities, it will very likely end in World War 3. They recently announced that they do in fact have the bomb. Despite our piss poor 3rd rate efforts to deny them the bomb. That will be an aerial war. There is no shared border.
So now we wait. What will the other Arab states do. Turkey? Saudi? Egypt?
Tel Aviv is empty right now. Iran is threatening retribution, and the Israeli citizens believe them.
This could all end in a flash. Hamas could just release their hostages. Sue for peace.
But for lasting peace. Hamas MUST LOSE. Any peace Israel agrees to, the Hamas position MUST be WORSE than when the war started. And concessions will be viewed as a victory. That will lead to a re-arming, and yet another war in the future. 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Israel must force Hamas to retreat 3 steps. Or they are just giving Hamas a breathing space to rearm.
HAMAS MUST LOSE.